Casino di Monte Carlo

Source: Flickr

Copyright: Creative Commons CC BY-SA 2.0

Description

Nel Casinò di Monte Carlo, il 18 agosto 1913, la pallina della roulette cadde 26 volte di seguito sul nero, un evento estremamente raro. Molti giocatori persero milioni perché, presumendo che il rosso "doveva arrivare adesso", scommettevano sempre di più sul rosso, un classico esempio dell'errore di ragionamento del giocatore (gambler's fallacy). La probabilità che questo accada in una roulette europea (con 37 caselle) è di circa 1 su 145 milioni.

Il famoso errore di Monte Carlo (gambler's fallacy) è stato chiamato così in riferimento a questo episodio.

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Copyright: Creative Commons CC BY-SA 2.0

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Source: Flickr

Copyright: Creative Commons CC BY-SA 2.0

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